Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick and Democratic challenger Bob Harvie are tied at 46 percent each in a new poll of Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District.
The poll by Global Strategy Group (GSG), a Democratic-aligned firm also used by Gov. Josh Shapiro, was first reported by Politico on Oct. 11. GSG called the result a "statistical tie." The Nov. 3 election is 19 days away.
Fitzpatrick's campaign disputes the finding. The five-term Republican released his own survey showing a 9-point lead, according to HuffPost. Fitzpatrick said in an interview at the Capitol that Harvie was not catching up, adding, "We feel very good about it."
The competing numbers arrive alongside a wave of outside spending. Campaigns and national groups have committed $13.8 million in advertising spending and reservations in the race, part of about $90 million across four Pennsylvania swing districts, according to BucksCo Today, citing Philadelphia Inquirer data.
Democrats have allocated about $8.5 million compared with $5.2 million for Republicans. Fitzpatrick's own campaign has spent or reserved $4.5 million from June through December, up from the roughly $460,000 it spent on ads during his entire 2024 reelection bid.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) plans to invest about $900,000 in Harvie's race, its first funding of a Fitzpatrick challenger since 2020. The National Republican Congressional Committee has put $120,000 into a partnership with Fitzpatrick.
The Cook Political Report shifted PA-01 from Likely Republican to Lean Republican on Friday, Oct. 9, part of 18 House races it moved toward Democrats in a single update, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer. Cook still gives Fitzpatrick the edge.
Its analysis said the race "could be quite close" but that Fitzpatrick has the "chops" to outperform his party as he has before.
Dan McCormick, Harvie's campaign manager, pointed to several factors in an interview with the Bucks County Beacon. "It's a culmination of a few factors: Brian's bad votes, rising costs in groceries, gas and health care and a growing distrust in our government," McCormick said.
An NRCC spokesman told Politico that Harvie had a stagnant campaign, a cash disadvantage and a record of tax hikes. Harvie has denied allegations of wrongdoing, according to Politico.
The GSG memo also found that swing voters in the district prefer Democratic control of the U.S. House. According to a Harvie campaign press release cited by the Beacon, about 60 percent of undecided voters prefer Democratic control.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Gov. Shapiro rallied for Harvie in Lower Bucks County on Saturday, Oct. 10. House Speaker Mike Johnson visited Bucks County for a private meeting with Fitzpatrick. A Democrat has not represented the Bucks County area since 2011.
Bucks County voters can check registration and polling locations through the county elections office.
