Democrat Bob Harvie holds a narrow lead over five-term Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in a new poll of Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District, as two national forecasters have downgraded the incumbent's chances four days before Election Day.

Harvie, a Bucks County commissioner, leads Fitzpatrick 48% to 46% among likely voters in a New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University poll released Oct. 25. The 2-point gap falls within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 5.7 percentage points.

The poll surveyed 400 likely voters between Oct. 16 and Oct. 22. Among independent voters, Harvie and Fitzpatrick are tied at 44%.

Don Levy, director of the Siena Research Institute, called the race a "toss-up," according to the Philadelphia Inquirer. "Clearly, Harvie has an opportunity to hold on to this two-point lead on Election Day," Levy said.

Forecasters shift ratings

Both Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball have moved their PA-01 ratings toward Democrats. Cook shifted from "Likely Republican" to "Leans Republican," WHYY reported. Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the race from "Leans Republican" to "Toss-up," according to PoliticsPA.

"The aforementioned Siena Pennsylvania polling had Fitzpatrick down 2 points, a surprising finding given his electoral resilience," wrote Sabato's Crystal Ball analysts Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman. They added that the shift reflects "the possibility of a Democratic megawave" but cautioned they "may end up pushing many if not all of these races back to Leans Republican in our final ratings."

Cook Political Report noted the race "looks tighter than it was this summer" and said Fitzpatrick will need to outperform the top of the ticket by at least 20 points to hold his seat, according to its PA-01 race page.

Money pouring in

Fitzpatrick holds a large fundraising edge. Federal Election Commission filings show his campaign spent $11.73 million this cycle, compared with Harvie's $2.75 million, the Bucks County Courier Times reported. As of Oct. 14, Fitzpatrick had $709,000 cash on hand versus Harvie's $409,000.

Outside groups have flooded the district. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee committed more than $1.5 million to TV ads since the start of October, and House Democrats' main super PAC spent more than $7.5 million, according to AdImpact data cited by the Courier Times. Neither group had bought TV ads in the district since 2020.

On the Republican side, the Congressional Leadership Fund and the National Republican Congressional Committee committed roughly $6 million combined. Trump's super PAC, MAGA Inc., purchased $100,000 in ads opposing Harvie, according to an Oct. 12 FEC filing cited in the same report.

Strategists split on outcome

Chris Nicholas, a Republican political consultant and Bucks County native, told the Courier Times he believes Fitzpatrick's bipartisan reputation will carry him to another term.

Democratic strategist Brit Crampsie disagreed, telling the Courier Times that Fitzpatrick "has wrongly aligned himself with an unpopular president that's failed Bucks County, and voters see through his 'moderate' branding."

Sam Chen, a political scientist and Republican strategist, told the Courier Times he expects Fitzpatrick to win by a thinner margin than in past elections.

The 1st Congressional District covers all of Bucks County and a sliver of Montgomery County. Democrats hold a 1-point voter registration advantage. Fitzpatrick won reelection in 2024 by about 13 percentage points.

Voters head to the polls on Tuesday, Nov. 3.